Osun Was Never the Real Test: Why TINUBU Will Win the State in 2027

Despite the security armada, despite the presence of many state governors and top APC stalwarts, His Excellency Ademola Adeleke has danced his way back to power.

Anybody who thinks that what happened in Osun is a sign of how the general election in 2027 will be conducted is mistaken.

I said before the votes were cast that the people of Osun would likely be allowed to freely choose to re-elect their governor. The moment President Bola Ahmed Tinubu directed the EFCC to unfreeze the Osun State accounts and asked the people to go out and vote for their choice, I knew the game he was playing.

Politics is not a game of emotions. It is strategy, interests, leverage and the calculated use of the instruments of power. Tinubu understands this game very well.

I believe allowing the Osun election to proceed without federal interference was a deliberate political investment in 2027. When the presidential election comes, Tinubu can point to Osun as evidence that he allowed the people to choose their governor and did not interfere with the electoral process.

I also believe Tinubu will win Osun State in 2027, and I expect him to win it by a landslide.

Why? The Accord Party is unlikely to field a strong presidential candidate capable of seriously challenging him in the state. Besides, many Osun voters may remember that Tinubu had the power to interfere with the governorship election but chose not to. Some may therefore vote for him in appreciation of allowing Ademola Adeleke to win.

And Adeleke himself will understand the politics of what happened.

By allowing the governor to retain his seat, Tinubu may have turned a political opponent into a stakeholder. Adeleke, having secured his second term, will have his own political interests to protect and will understand that politics is about relationships, accommodation and reciprocity.

This is politics.

Tinubu knows that rigging Osun would not be in his interest going into 2027. Allowing the people to choose their governor may prove to have been the smarter political investment.

So, don’t read the Osun governorship election as a template for 2027.

The real game is only beginning.

Meanwhile, let’s remember the 21 souls lost in this election. Let those who killed them pay the ultimate price soon. May their souls rest in peace. Amen.

(c) Fred Chukwuelobe, fnipr, writes from Lagos.